P(≥k) = 1 − P(X<k),
where λ = (per-90 rate) × (expected minutes ÷ 90) × (opponent factor).
Opponent factors this game: Arsenal players' fouls/cards ×1.1 (Leeds are physical);
Leeds players' tackles ×1.15 (Arsenal dominate possession). Lineups are predicted,
not confirmed — check team news before kickoff. Player stats are illustrative
sample figures, not real data. This is a prototype, not betting advice.
FPL (free, no key): loads real 2026/27 yellow-card rates for both squads — feeds the "to be booked" model only (FPL doesn't track tackles or fouls).
API-Football (v3.football.api-sports.io): full stats incl. tackles and fouls. Note: free keys only cover seasons up to 2024 — pick 2024, or go Pro for the current season.